COVID-19 Epidemic Situation, the Outbreak Peak and Cycle Centered on China's No-Drug Control Actions: A Modeling Study

Abstract

Background: New characteristics have created significant challenges in non-drug regulation on the 2019 Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak while there are few related research articles in recent months. In view of these recent developments, a more comprehensive analysis on the role of non-drug control measures (NDC) will provide a further guide for the work on disease prevention faced with a range of changes. Methods: This paper measures and divides the intensity of the NDC into eleven tiers according to the World Health Organization (WHO) and Chinese emergency classification criteria. The paper then proposes a new model for control-measures-susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-dead (CM-SEIRD), based upon the standard susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model, which parameterizing the new characteristics of COVID-19 infection and NDC. The start time and intensity of implementation of the NDC were taken as variables to obtain the special impact of NDC on the COVID-19 epidemic. The theoretical study on variable discretization and continuity was carried out for the Wuhan model system. Findings: NDC can efficiently minimize deaths, minimize infection risk, and delay the outbreak peak for 1-2 months. The highest outbreak time discussed in this study was around 16-23 days. If NDC can be carried out within the time threshold and intensity level, more than 10% of the total death toll will be reduced, more than 8% of the peak infected number will be reduced, and more than 90% of the population will be able to prevent infection. In contrast to the NDC starting time, the intensity of NDC impacts the outbreak more directly and has a good impact on the overall number of people exposed, sick and dead from the beginning to the end. This study also found that it would take 23 days to clear new cases in the blocked areas based on the strength of Chinese control measures. Interpretation: Despite great pressure due to the new characteristics and situation of the COVID-19 outbreak, at this point, NDC is still the most effective prevention and control step. Different countries and regions need to implement strict NDCs as quickly as possible to contain the outbreak and to promote development and economic growth as soon as possible.Funding Statement: Guangxi University.Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.