Abstract
We formulate a mathematical model for the spread of the coronavirus which incorporates adherence to disease prevention. The major results of this study are: first, we determined optimal infection coefficients such that high levels of coronavirus transmission are prevented. Secondly, we have found that there? exists several optimal pairs of removal rates, from the general population of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectives respectively that can protect hospital bed capacity and flatten the hospital admission curve. Of the many optimal strategies, this study recommends the pair that yields the least number of coronavirus related deaths. The results for South Africa, which is better placed than the other sub-Sahara African countries, show that failure to address hygiene and adherence issues will preclude the existence of an optimal strategy and could result in a more severe epidemic than the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. Relaxing lockdown measures to allow individuals to attend to vital needs such as food replenishment increases household and community infection rates and the severity of the overall infection.
Highlights
The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted global economies and health systems in unprecedented ways
The decisions were based on hospital bed capacity to avoid hospital overload and were dependent on early testing and isolating those who test positive as was the case in South Korea, Germany and China [16]
The epidemic in these developed countries has had very serious effects on the overall infrastructure and livelihoods of the people living there, and we believe that the effects on the sub-Sahara Africa region could very likely overwhelm this region where the economies are very weak and their Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity compared to population sizes averages only 9 beds per 10 000 inhabitants [32]
Summary
The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted global economies and health systems in unprecedented ways. The decisions were based on hospital bed capacity to avoid hospital overload and were dependent on early testing and isolating those who test positive as was the case in South Korea, Germany and China [16] The epidemic in these developed countries has had very serious effects on the overall infrastructure and livelihoods of the people living there, and we believe that the effects on the sub-Sahara Africa region could very likely overwhelm this region where the economies are very weak and their ICU capacity compared to population sizes averages only 9 beds per 10 000 inhabitants [32]. The current health facilities are already inadequate, for example the number of hospital beds 9 per 10 000 people [32], will prove inadequate based on the higher hospitalization rates reported in Italy, France and Spain for individuals infected with the coronavirus [24]. To find a strategy which yields the lowest number of deaths
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