Covid-19 and university admission exams: A bangladesh perspective

Abstract

Background: Educational institutions have been closed in Bangladesh due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and board exams like Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) exams, as well as university admission exams have been suspended. Secondary school students have been promoted based on past performance. As the time has come for students to take admission into universities, educational authorities must make decisions about the logistical and public health arrangements that could allow universities to conduct admission exams.Design and methods: The public health and lockdown policies were analyzed during the timeframe of 25th March to 15th October. Time series models of the trend of COVID-19 were prepared for the near future using the ARIMA technique, for the lockdown phase and the post lockdown phase. This was evaluated in juxtaposition with the restrictions relating to travel, work, schools, public gatherings, face masks etc. The models were then used to forecast positivity rates for two weeks into the future.Results: The curve was not bent during the strict lockdown phase, but the post lockdown phase eventually saw a decline in positivity rates. The best models selected were ARIMA(0,1,7) for the lockdown stage, and ARIMA(7,1,0) for the post lockdown stage. AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE criteria were used for model selection.Conclusions: Many restrictions of the lockdown phase have been continued until the present time, and disease case positivity rates have declined. However, the resumption of work and domestic travel has not prevented the control of the spread of the disease. It may therefore be possible to conduct in person admission test exams for universities, while maintaining social distancing, face masks and other public health measures.Significance for public healthThe outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted educational activities worldwide, moved classes to the online platform, and delayed exams, graduations and admissions. Bangladesh has one of the most conservative and risk averse policies when it comes to opening educational institutions during the pandemic. However, a prolonged and indefinite delay in allowing essential milestones like university admission exams can hamper the progress and competitiveness of millions of Bangladeshi students in their careers. If the spread of the disease is not increasing in the near future, it can be possible to organize university admission tests with proper health and safety arrangements, to enable students to continue their higher education journey. This study makes short term predictions of the progression of COVID-19 in Bangladesh, using ARIMA models, to advise educational authorities about policy and logistical measures to enable this journey.