Abstract
We investigate the connection between the choice of transportation mode used by commuters and the probability of COVID-19 transmission. This interplay might influence the choice of transportation means for years to come. We present data on commuting, socioeconomic factors, and COVID-19 disease incidence for several US metropolitan areas. The data highlights important connections between population density and mobility, public transportation use, race, and increased likelihood of transmission. We use a transportation model to highlight the effect of uncertainty about transmission on the commuters’ choice of transportation means. Using multiple estimation techniques, we found strong evidence that public transit ridership in several US metro areas has been considerably impacted by COVID-19 and by the policy responses to the pandemic. Concerns about disease transmission had a negative effect on ridership, which is over and above the adverse effect from the observed reduction in employment. The COVID-19 effect is likely to reduce the demand for public transport in favor of lower density alternatives. This change relative to the status quo will have implications for fuel use, congestion, accident frequency, and air quality. More vulnerable communities might be disproportionally affected as a result. We point to the need for additional studies to further quantify these effects and to assist policy in planning for the post-COVID-19 transportation future.
Highlights
We investigate the connection between the choice of transportation mode used by commuters and the probability of COVID-19 transmission
They document a positive relationship between transportation and COVID-19 infections during the pandemic onset and argue that this relationship was stronger in partially reopened r egions[6]
We used multiple estimation techniques and found strong evidence that aggregate public transit ridership in each urbanized area (UZA) we studied has been negatively impacted by COVID-19 and by the policy responses to the pandemic, i.e. lock-downs
Summary
The possibility of COVID-19 transmission introduces an additional margin when it comes to the choice of means of transport for commuters. The VOT increases with the after-tax wage rate and decreases with the marginal utility of money This leads to a self-selection where commuters with a higher opportunity cost of time will tend to choose faster, generally more expensive modes of transport. The model illustrates how infection risk and travel time are linked to commuting density as captured by the number of people, n, using this particular means of transport. The value of choosing a transportation mode that implies a marginal reduction in the number of people commuting, resulting in a lower probability of infection, is given by. Equation captures the combined value of the reduced risk and reduced travel time that would be afforded by a small reduction in the number of people commuting This could be, for example, the result of using a different (or less crowded) mode for transport. We use the calculated value DevPctHmi,t for each UZA in our estimation analysis
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