COVID-19 and the effect of central bank intervention on exchange rate volatility in developing countries: The case of Uganda

Abstract

<abstract> <p>The COVID-19 crisis has not only manifested as a tragic public health crisis but also as an unprecedented economic disruption characterized by economic deterioration, the sharp increase in market volatility and the blinding uncertainty about the impact of the pandemic, especially in the context of developing countries. It is therefore not surprising that central banks seeking to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, which are critical for sustained economic development, have maintained the practice of central bank intervention, especially in developing countries. This paper empirically examines the effect of central bank foreign exchange interventions on the level and volatility of the Uganda shilling / US dollar exchange rate (UGX/USD). Utilizing daily data spanning the period December 30, 2016, to 1 December 2021, we estimate a foreign exchange intervention model within a GARCH theoretical framework. Empirical results indicate that foreign exchange interventions have had mixed impact on the volatility of the exchange rate. In addition, despite generating significant uncertainty, the COVID 19 pandemic adverse shock results in a 0.03 percent appreciation due to Uganda's policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p> </abstract>