Abstract
This paper discusses possible long-term effects of COVID-19 on activity-travel behaviour. Making use of theories and concepts from economics, psychology, sociology, and geography, this work argues that lasting effects can be expected, and specifically that peak demand among car and public transport users may be lower than if the pandemic would never have happened. The magnitude of such effects at the aggregate level in terms of the total travel time of all inhabitants of a country or state is likely limited. Such lasting effects imply that additional infrastructure extensions to reduce congestion on roads and crowding in public transport might have a lower benefit-cost ratio than would be the case without these impacts. The paper discusses avenues for future research, including work on the role of attitude changes, the formation of new habitual behaviour, new social norms and practices, well-being effects, and the role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT).
Highlights
The impact of COVID-19 on travel behaviour has become a major focus
We argue that the concepts that we select, such as utility, attitude changes, and con straints, labelled ‘determinants for travel behaviour’ in Table 1, are more important than the choice for the specific theory un derpinning the existence of these concepts
The concept of constant travel time budgets implies that we should be careful in expecting significant lasting effects in terms of a reduction in average travel time expenditure at the aggregate level
Summary
The impact of COVID-19 on travel behaviour has become a major focus. Many papers on this issue have already been published, and very likely, many others will be published in the coming years. The authors estimate travel behav iour indicators to be influenced by 5 to 10% (the decrease in travel behaviour indicators such as the number of trips or kilometres travelled is on the order of magnitude of 5–10%) Based on these results, it can be hypothesized that the long-term effects of COVID-19 can be overestimated. Our main question is as follows: What do dominant theories and concepts tell us about possible long-term effects of COVID-19 on travel behaviour and activity participation? This is followed by a discussion of the potential lasting effects of COVID-19 based on theories and theoretical concepts. TPB: Theory of Planned Behaviour, NOA: Needs, Opportunities, and Abilities Model, SPT: Social Practice Theory, UT: Utility Theory, TG: Time Geography
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