Abstract
Pessimism looms large all over. COVID-19 has been projected as worse than the Great Depression of 1930. Everyday analyst and agency reports are diving into new bottoms of a fall-down in economic activities. Indian economy, however, has a slightly different story to tell at this hour of crisis. The silver lining for the Indian economy comes from a steep fall in the crude oil prices from around $70 per barrel to a record 18 years low of $22 per barrel. This windfall gain can, to some extent, offset the direct losses due to COVID-19. At the same time, dreams like a $5 trillion economy no longer look even a remote possibility. This article takes stock of the likely impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term. A decision-tree approach has been adopted for doing the projections.
Highlights
The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term
The research question being addressed is What will be the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term? A decisiontree approach has been adopted for doing the projections that spell out the impact
A decline of the global economy by 1% as compared to the previous projection of a 2.5% growth has been forecasted by the UN on 2 April 2020 (The Economic Times, 2020a)
Summary
The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term. The research question being addressed is What will be the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term? Before measuring the likely impact on the Indian economy, the methodology has been spelled out in the assessment part of the paper. Findings for this paper are in the form of short-term and long-term projections for the key economic indicators. These have been given and discussed at the end of the assessment of each of the economic indicators. A few suggestions have been given as a part of the conclusion
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