COVID-19 and internal migration in Serbia-geographical perspective

Abstract

Internal migration is an essential part of regional population change. Driven by various determinants, internal migration has been unequal across time and space. Migration responses to the changes in societal circumstances make it relevant to investigate the spatial and temporal dimension of internal migration in Serbia before and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The research aims to identify to what extent and in what way the pandemic has changed the magnitude and geographical patterns of internal migration in Serbia. The study is based on additionally processed official statistics on internal migration for the period 2018-2020, from March to December for each year, at the municipal, district (oblast, plural-oblasti), and regional levels. These are aggregate administrative data on usual residence registration by month. The derived data on the net migration rate is cartographically presented using the classification method natural Breaks (Jenks). Spatial dependence was assessed applying the spatial autocorrelation method, based on the Local Moran statistic. The results revealed that the pandemic affected not only the volume of internal migration but also its spatial patterns. The findings present new insights on the role of internal migration in reallocation of population across Serbia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic while underlying the importance of further research to deepen the understanding of internal migration trends upon the COVID-19 outbreak.