Abstract
Objective: to analyze survival and factors associated with increased risk of death for older adults diagnosed with COVID-19, living in the Northeast region of Brazil. Method: retrospective observational study developed with secondary data provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, between June 14 and December 26, 2020. The Kaplan-Meyer method, the time-dependent cox regression model was used, including covariates (age, sex, skin color, comorbidities, admission to the ICU, ventilatory support). Results: out of 9,306 individuals analyzed, 55.9% died and 44.1% survived. The highest risk of death was observed for those aged 80-89 (HR=1.95), brown-skinned (HR=1.99), with immunodeficiency (HR=1.259) or kidney disease (HR=1.147), admitted to the ICU (HR=1,795) and in use of ventilatory support (HR=1606). Conclusion: among older adults residing in the Northeast region of Brazil, there was a higher risk of death from COVID-19 for octogenarians, brown-skinned, with comorbidities, hospitalization in the ICU, followed by the use of ventilatory support. The creation of health prevention strategies that identify older adults with these profiles is suggested to prevent deaths in future pandemic situations.
Highlights
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV2) responsible for COVID-19 is the most severe epidemic that humanity has ever experienced
This is a retrospective observational survival analysis type study developed with secondary data provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MS)[14] regarding older adults diagnosed with COVID-19 in the eight states of the national territory that make up the Northeast region
The present study carried out an analysis of survival for the older adult population residing in the eight states in the Northeast region of Brazil, and investigated factors associated with a higher risk of death from COVID-19
Summary
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV2) responsible for COVID-19 is the most severe epidemic that humanity has ever experienced. Older adults are at risk for severe viral infection[2,3] and death from infectious diseases[4]. This vulnerability stems from the greater number of comorbidities and the low immunological capacity that the older population holds. The new coronavirus, besides being lethal, has been overloading the Brazilian and global health systems. In this way, conducting studies to monitor the cases of COVID-19 in different regions of the Brazilian territory is important for the consolidation of effective strategies to reduce and/or combat the virus
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