Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread across the country negatively impacting on the economy. This paper uses the panel data of 14 prefecture-level cities from 2015 to 2020 in Hunan to determine the factors and effects of economic downturns based on the spatial econometric model. We calculate the Moran index, so-called the Moran's I, to analyse the impact of each factor on the economy. The results show that the spatial correlation of the cities around Chang-Zhu-Tan is high, and the economic growth of the entire province can be influenced by these cities. These cities should adopt strategies to improve the economy, such as reducing the tax revenues, improving the local financial revenues, and reducing the ineffective educational input. These results can also be helpful for policymakers, who will attempt to retransform the Hunan economy during the post-COVID era.
Highlights
This paper uses an index of the gross regional product (y) as a dependent variable, and six independent variables were selected: local fiscal revenues (x1), total employee wages (x2), the industrial production index (x3), the total value of imports φit = λWεit + μit, μit ∼ N(0, σ 2In) where φ is the random error vector, λ is the spatial error autoregressive coefficient, Wεit is the spatial lag term of the random error term, and μ is the random error term following a normal distribution
The local fiscal revenues (x1), total employee wages (x2), industrial production index (x3), the total value of imports and exports (x4), and educational input of all cities (x5) in Hunan Province are mainly concentrated in the second and fourth quadrants, while the Moran’s I is negative, which indicates that the five variables have a negative spatial correlation
The results showed that the local fiscal revenues and the total employee wages are mutually affected by these cities
Summary
Suyan et al [4] used the global Moran’s I index method to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of water resources to obtain the spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity of indicators in Shandong Province, added the spatial effect to construct a spatial econometric model, and analyzed the water use efficiency through LM test. They proposed suggestions to promote the sustainable development of the national economy and society.
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