Abstract
Abstract. COVID-19 vaccines are rolling out in the Philippines but the supply remains limited; there is a need to optimize the distribution. In this study, we developed a COVID-19 agent-based model for Quezon City, a COVID-19 hotspot in the country. This model, in conjunction with a multi-objective linear programming model for equitable vaccine distribution, was then used to simulate four vaccination scenarios. Experiments were conducted with the front-line workers always added to the groups: mobile workers, elderly and low-income. Main results are: prioritizing the mobile workers minimizes infections the most (by 4.34%), while prioritizing the low-income groups minimizes deaths the most (by 1.93%). These results demonstrate that protecting the population with the most interactions (mobile workers) effectively reduces future infections. On the other hand, protecting the most vulnerable population (low income and elderly) decreases the likelihood of death. These results may guide the policy-makers in Quezon City.
Highlights
Worldwide, COVID-19 vaccines are rolling out, but the supply remains limited, and coverage is hampered by various factors, including vaccine hesitancy
As of October 28, 2021, “Our World in Data” reports only a 25% full or partial vaccine coverage for the Philippines. This limitation forces the Philippine national government to vaccinate in groups with minimizing infections and deaths as their primary objectives. Having these different priority groups raises questions on prioritization, resulting in different vaccination scenarios, but the outcome of these scenarios is unknown; we ask: How would we maximize these vaccines in a way that we minimize infections and deaths? We explore this question by simulating different vaccination scenarios in Quezon City, Philippines—a COVID-19 hot-spot in the country
A COVID-19 agent-based model was developed for Quezon City
Summary
COVID-19 vaccines are rolling out, but the supply remains limited, and coverage is hampered by various factors, including vaccine hesitancy. As of October 28, 2021, “Our World in Data” reports only a 25% full or partial vaccine coverage for the Philippines. This limitation forces the Philippine national government to vaccinate in groups (e.g., front-line workers, elderly, mobile workers, and low-income earners) with minimizing infections and deaths as their primary objectives. Having these different priority groups raises questions on prioritization, resulting in different vaccination scenarios, but the outcome of these scenarios is unknown; we ask: How would we maximize these vaccines in a way that we minimize infections and deaths? We have four vaccination scenarios of interest): 1) no vaccination (control), 2) prioritizing the elderly and front-line workers, 3) prioritizing the mobile workers and front-line workers, and 4) prioritizing the low-income earners and frontline workers
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