Courting Disaster: An Expanded NATO vs. Russia and China

Abstract

The process of NATO expansion is on track. For a combination of bad reasons-domestic politics, organizational inertia, sloppy strategic analysis-NATO expansion up to but not beyond the boundaries of the former Soviet Union is a done deal.' But in its current limited incarnation it is a bad deal, an ill considered and potentially regressive move. By limiting NATO expansion to small Eastern European states, NATO leaders preclude the alliance from developing the capabilities it will need to confront the coming security challenges of the twenty-first century. Current plans for limited NATO expansion ignore the biggest future security problem for the West, which is not Russia itself, but the long-run possibility of a global power transition with China sometime in the next century. In this geostrategic scenario, Russia matters because of the potential power of a Russian-Chinese alliance. The need to prevent any such alignment should be central to all thinking about the future of NATO. In the short run, the problem of securing Russian respect for the boundaries of its neighbors in Eastern Europe is best managed within the context of NATO's proven capacity for reducing and resolving conflicts among its members, of whom Russia should be one.