Abstract
Abstract. The extent of coastline urbanization reduces their resilience to flooding, especially in low-lying areas. The study site is the coastline of the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), historically affected by marine storms and floods. The main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of this coastal area to marine flooding by considering the dynamics of the forcing component (total water level) and the dynamics of the receptor (urban areas). This was done by comparing the output of the three flooding scenarios (10, 100 and > 100 year return periods) to the output of different scenarios of future urban growth up to 2050. Scenario-based marine flooding extents were derived by applying the Cost–Distance tool of ArcGIS® to a high-resolution digital terrain model. Three scenarios of urban growth (similar-to-historic, compact and sprawled) up to 2050 were estimated by applying the cellular automata-based SLEUTH model. The results show that if the urban growth progresses compactly, flood-prone areas will largely increase with respect to similar-to-historic and sprawled growth scenarios. Combining the two methodologies can be useful for identification of flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, and is therefore crucial for coastal managers and planners.
Highlights
Today more than half of the world’s population resides in cities (United Nations, 2014)
The main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine flooding in a way that considers the dynamics of the forcing component and the dynamics of the receptor, i.e. urban areas
The highest Optimal SLEUTH Metric (OSM) value increased with each calibration step, meaning that the resemblance between modelled and observed data improved as calibration progressed
Summary
Today more than half of the world’s population resides in cities (United Nations, 2014). Urban growth leads to changes in natural habitat, loss of open spaces and arable land, alteration of natural hydrological and sediment cycles, as well as an increased contribution to air and water pollution (UNFPA, 2007; Clarke, 2014). Worldwide urbanization processes are intense in coastal zones, considering that over 40 % of the global population live in areas within 100 km of the coastline (IOC/UNESCO, IMO, FAO and UNDP, 2011). This leads to an increased susceptibility of urban settlements to coastal hazards, such as flooding and erosion resulting from the impact of waves, tides, storm surges and sea-level rise (De Sherbinin et al, 2007; Hanson et al, 2011). Apart from the visible impacts of temporary coastal inundation (e.g. damage to physical structures), some indirect effects can aggravate the problem, e.g. tourism decline, rise in insurance premiums for house-owners and other business disruptions (Lequeux and Ciavola, 2011; Meyer et al, 2013; Kreibich et al, 2014)
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