Coupling Relationship and Influencing Factors of the Water–Energy–Cotton System in Tarim River Basin

Abstract

As the largest inland river basin in China, the Tarim River Basin is an important energy base and a key cotton-producing area in China. Therefore, the harmonious development of water resources, energy resources and cotton resources in the Tarim River Basin is a lifeline for stable quality and efficient development in this region. In this paper, the water–energy–cotton system of the Tarim River Basin is constructed and the weight of each index in the system is determined by using the entropy method. On this basis, the comprehensive development index of each subsystem and the water–energy–cotton system is calculated to measure the comprehensive development level of each system. Then, the coupling relationship between the three resources is quantitatively analyzed by using the coupling coordination degree model, and the mutual influence and strength of interaction between each system are calculated. Finally, a fractional regression model is established to analyze the factors affecting the coordinated development of the water–energy–cotton system in the Tarim River Basin. The results show that the comprehensive development index of the Tarim River Basin fluctuates obviously and the comprehensive development level of water resource systems is higher than that of the cotton resource and energy resource systems, and there are regional differences between each subsystem and the comprehensive development index of water–energy–cotton system. The coupling coordination degree of the basin is the primary coordination on the whole; however, there are significant differences in the coupling coordination degree of each region. In terms of influencing factors, the area of soil erosion treatment and water consumption in ecological environments both play a positive role in promoting the coupling coordination degree, and population size and GDP will hinder the development of the coupling coordination degree to a certain extent.