Coupling relationship and development patterns of agricultural emission reduction, carbon sequestration, and food security

Abstract

In-depth exploration of the coupling relationship between agricultural emission reduction and carbon sequestration (ERCS) and food security provides an important basis for promoting sustainable low-carbon development in agriculture. This research investigates the coupling mechanisms and the current state of coordinated development of agricultural ERCS and food security using provincial panel data from 2001 to 2022 in China. The agricultural ERCS level shows an upward trend, with higher levels in the north and lower in the south; externalities are positive in the north but negative in the south. Significant dynamic interactions and spatial correlations between the agricultural ERCS and food security exist, with a local spatial agglomeration pattern of “north–south opposition”. Areas of high-high agglomeration are mainly concentrated in the north, while low-low agglomeration areas are primarily in the south. High-high agglomeration areas drive growth in transitional and low-growth areas through diffusion effects. The average coupling coordination degree of provinces increased from 0.432 to 0.473, indicating more coordinated development, and with a decreasing polarization trend. The spatial distributions of the coupling coordination degree and the relative development index are higher in the north and lower in the south, with many areas showing high adjustment, low adjustment, and high antagonism, particularly in the south where the number of high antagonistic areas has decreased. Implementing differentiated development strategies between the north and the south, using spatial agglomeration characteristics to optimize regional policies, focusing on the diffusion effects of high-coupling coordination areas to drive the development of low-growth and transitional areas, and enhancing the lagged terms can promote sustainable coordinated agricultural development.