Coupling of El Niño events and long-term warming leads to pervasive climate extremes in the terrestrial tropics

Abstract

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of seasonal and interannual climatic variability across the tropics. The 2015/16 El Niño event was one of the strongest El Niño events of the past century. Here we characterize the meteorological impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño event upon the terrestrial tropics, and place the severity of this event into context of previous strong events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Strong drought-inducing meteorological anomalies (≥2 s.d.) occurred across vast regions (20%) of the terrestrial tropics, where the wet tropics (≥1200 mm yr−1) were more severely affected (33%) than the drier tropics (6%). Central and eastern Amazonia experienced the most sustained and spatially extensive drought inducing anomalies, while parts of the Congo basin and Insular Southeast Asia also experienced severe drought. Surprisingly, some regions of the tropics (e.g. the Guiana Shield) with well known ENSO teleconnections were only briefly affected by the 2015/16 El Niño event. 2015/16 El Niño soil water drought impacts affected 29% of the terrestrial tropics, compared to 16% and 18% in 1982/83 and 1997/98, respectively. Maximum temperatures were particularly exacerbated compared to previous strong El Niños because they were amplified by the warming trend due to anthropogenic climate change. This also intensified positive anomalies of atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (the atmospheric demand for moisture), which had strongly negative consequences for vegetation productivity in the tropics. Even if El Niño events do not increase in intensity over coming decades, the pervasive long-term warming trend means that the atmospheric drought impact of each strong El Niño is becoming more severe, and many parts of the tropics will experience novel climate (temperature and VPD) conditions with each new strong El Niño event.