Coupling Epidemiological Model within an Activity-based Travel Modelling System for Halifax, Canada

Abstract

This study combines an epidemiological model (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, S-I-R) with the Shorter-term Decisions Simulator (SDS), an activity-based microsimulation model developed for Halifax, Canada. The decision support tool assesses infected individuals’ travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the S-I-R model reveal the rate of infection, p=0.39, the rate of recovery, q=0.34, and the reproduction number, R0=1.15 in Halifax region. In terms of activity participation, most infected individuals are found to participate in two activities (53%) followed by three activities (25%). Infected individuals share a similar type of proportion for work, shopping, and recreational type of activity (23%, 20% and 19%, respectively). In response to travel distance and travel duration for the infected individuals, the age group of 30 to 40 shows a higher density than others. This paper’s findings will help policymakers to develop policy interventions to deal with ongoing, emerging COVID-19 public health crisis.