Coupled parameter perturbations in the SPP scheme of the HarmonEPS

Abstract

<p>In an ensemble prediction system (EPS) the uncertainty in the initial atmospheric conditions is usually represented via perturbation of the initial atmospheric state and different boundary conditions at the beginning and throughout the duration of the forecast. These approaches exclude the uncertainty due to the representation of physical processes within the parameterization schemes of a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). Much of the uncertainty in the presentation of physical process arises from uncertain parameter values regulating key physical processes in the boundary-layer and microphysics schemes. This uncertainty can be represented with a Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization (SPP) scheme, where parameter values for the different model grid points are randomly selected from a defined probability density function. The SPP scheme can improve model performance and increase ensemble spread, but may lead to unrealistic parameter values, which can introduce additional model bias. A potential solution is to use coupled/correlated perturbations for relevant SPP parameters to increase the model performance and ensemble spread, while maintaining physically realistic ranges for the parameters. In this study, we investigate the impact of coupled perturbations in key parameters within the boundary-layer and microphysics schemes of the HarmonEPS model using the new SPP scheme. The performance of the coupled perturbations experiment is evaluated against HarmonEPS experiments using independent parameter perturbations, and perturbations in the initial atmospheric state and boundary conditions for both a winter and a summer period.  We find that coupled perturbations in the SPP scheme can decrease model bias and increase the ensemble spread for the 2m temperature and relative humidity, 10m-wind speed and total cloud cover.</p>