Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 evaluation and projection of East African precipitation

Abstract

AbstractThis study evaluates the performance of 43 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in reproducing annual cycle, climatology, and trend of observed precipitation over East Africa during 1950–2014. The results show that the CMIP6 models display good performance in simulating the annual cycle (i.e., bimodal pattern) of East African precipitation; however, most models and the multimodel ensemble mean (ENSEM) underestimate the March to May (MAM) precipitation while overestimating the October to December (OND) precipitation. Spatially, most models seem to perform relatively better in simulating OND precipitation compared to MAM season, despite wet (dry) biases over most parts of East Africa with the wettest (driest) biases over the Lake Victoria basin (southeastern Tanzania) during OND (MAM). The metrics have shown that nine models (i.e., MPI‐ESM1‐2‐HR, AWI‐CM‐1‐MR, MPI‐ESM1‐2‐LR, IPSL‐CM6A‐LR, CAS‐ESM2‐0, BCC‐CSM2‐MR, NorESM2‐LM, CESM2‐WACCM, and CMCC‐CM2‐SR5) outperform the other individual models during both OND and MAM. Compared with individual models, the ENSEM better agrees with the observation. Besides, the ENSEM and most models can reproduce the increasing trend in OND precipitation as observed over East Africa. However, for the secular change of MAM precipitation, given that half of the models show increasing trends, the ENSEM simulation produces an inconsistent trend with the observation. The ensemble of the above nine models with better performance projects an increase of precipitation averaged over East Africa in both MAM and OND by the end of the 21st century, with larger changes under SSP5‐8.5 than under SSP2‐4.5. Spatially, the largest percentage increase in MAM precipitation is projected to occur in central Tanzania and northwestern Kenya, while southeastern Tanzania shows the greatest percentage decrease. The projected percentage increases in OND precipitation are larger in the northeastern highlands of Tanzania and northwest Kenya.