Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 representation of peak and end of rainy season over Upper Blue Nile basin

Abstract

AbstractThe Upper Blue Nile river basin (uBN) is vital to three countries' water, food, and energy security (Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt). It is also a region with substantial interannual precipitation variability and the potential for significant climate change in coming decades. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects both variability and trends in uBN precipitation, with El Niño episodes historically connected with below‐average rainfall. In this context, this study seeks to: (a) examine the representation of ENSO–uBN rainfall teleconnections in simulations from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), as compared to the previous generation of models (CMIP5); (b) distinguish between teleconnections during the peak of the rainy season (July–August [JA]) and the agriculturally critical end‐of‐season rains (September–October [SO]); (c) investigate evidence for Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) mediation of these teleconnections in CMIP6 versus CMIP5 and for both peak rains and end of the rainy season. Using a subset of high performing models, we find that CMIP6 simulations of uBN precipitation show somewhat less bias than CMIP5 for JA total rainfall, and that correlations with ENSO have become more consistent across models, but that differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 are modest. CMIP6 simulations, like CMIP5, overestimate SO rainfall and suggest a stronger ENSO association in SO than is indicated by observations. Model representation of the TEJ and its association with both ENSO and uBN precipitation show no systematic change between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The mediating influence of the TEJ appears to be more important in JA than SO.