Coupled impacts of climate and land use changes on regional ecosystem services

Abstract

Ecosystem services (ES) are key to maintaining sustainable regional development. Climate change and land cover and land use change (LULC) are one of the main factors leading to changes in regional ecosystem services. Existing studies have simulated regional ES changes under different future scenarios, providing valuable guidance for regional sustainable management. However, most studies focus on the effects of individual factors (LULC or climate change) on ES, paying insufficient attention to the coupled effects of the two elements. Yunnan Province is a biodiversity hotspot facing challenges in ES in the context of future climate change and rapid socio-economic development. In order to achieve sustainable management, policies must be developed in advance to address possible future ecological risks. In this study, we simulated the coupled effects of climate change and LULC on six types of ES using the SD, FLUS, and InVEST models. The scenario framework of shared socioeconomic pathways SSP245 and SSP585 was combined with LULC scenario dynamics to assess the changes of ES in 2030 and 2050, identifying sensitive areas and providing a scientific basis for local ecosystem management. In 2020, the eastern part of Yunnan Province was the coldspot area for all ES. Under the future scenarios, Yunnan Province's ES show different loss rates and distinct spatial heterogeneity. Future climate change and LULC changes have a more significant negative impact on water conservation and water quality purification. About 66% of its counties will become sensitive areas for water production services, and 37% of counties will endure reduced water purification functions by more than 50%. According to the analytical results, we then proposed several suggestions to improve regional ES management.