Coupled atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean feedback accelerates rapid sea ice decline in Weddell Sea in high-resolution global climate model

Abstract

Sea ice extent around the Antarctic exhibits a high level of variability on interannual and longer timescales, characterized by a positive trend since the satellite era and interruptions due to e.g., the emergence of the Maud Rise Polynya in 2016. Given the relatively short period of observational data and the high level of natural variability, it has remained challenging to unequivocally identify the anthropogenic fingerprint in Antarctic sea ice. Moreover, to properly study the Antarctic sea ice and its response to future warming, it is necessary to capture important dynamics, such as polynyas, the Antarctic slope current, and coastal leads. Many models within the CMIP6 model portfolio do not even have the spatial resolution to adequately resolve these features. This implies that their Antarctic projections may not be as trustworthy and robust as those for the Arctic Ocean. In this study we employ the high-resolution OpenIFS-FESOM (AWI-CM3) coupled general circulation (nominally 30 km atmosphere and 4-25 km ocean resolutions) to investigate the Antarctic sea ice response to greenhouse warming, following a SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Our simulation exhibits a sudden decline of Antarctic sea ice in the Weddell Sea (WS) which can be explained by a combination of physical processes that involve continued strengthening of westerlies, increased atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer due to sea ice decline, a spin-up of the Weddell-Sea Gyre and slope current and corresponding vertical and horizontal supply of heat into the Weddell Sea. The resulting decrease of sea ice further leads to heat accumulation in austral summer due to the absorption of short-wave radiation, which can further weaken winter sea ice extent and intensify the momentum transfer and associated heat transport into the Weddell Sea gyre.   Our study highlights the relevance of positive atmosphere-sea ice-ocean feedbacks in triggering the abrupt decline in Antarctic sea ice.