Coupled Assessment of Water and Fire Systems Damages under Attack and Disaster Scenarios

Abstract

Water systems' vulnerability to natural disaster and terrorist attack has prompted extensive study of the probability and consequences of their potential failure. These systems are vital in their own right because they provide water for drinking, but they are also indispensable components of many cities' fire response plans. Water systems are also dependent on — or key inputs to — many of the other infrastructures that support daily life and efficient emergency response. Any risk assessment of water systems must therefore consider the importance of water systems' interdependence with fire response and other affected infrastructures. More investigation is needed on the effects of infrastructure interdependence on water systems' vulnerability. To highlight the importance of infrastructure interdependencies, a coupled model of water system performance and urban fire spread and suppression will be presented. The system's ability to suppress an urban fire under moderate damage to the water system will be modeled, and the consequences of this multi-mode failure — disabled water system and urban fire spread — will be discussed. This coupled modeling approach allows diagnosis of water systems' potential vulnerabilities to multi-mode attacks or failures (MMAFs) and development of possible mitigation strategies.