Abstract
Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners across the USA make weather- and climate-related management decisions at varying temporal and spatial scales, often with input from local experts like crop consultants and cooperative extension (CE) personnel. In order to provide additional guidance to such longer-term planning efforts, we developed a tool that shows statistically downscaled climate projections of temperature and precipitation consolidated to the county level for the contiguous US. Using the county as a fundamental mapping unit encourages the use of this information within existing institutional structures like CE and other U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) programs. A “quick-look” metric based on the spatial variability of climate within each county aids in the interpretation of county-level information. For instance, relatively higher spatial variability within a county indicates that more localized information should be used to support stakeholder planning. Changes in annual precipitation show a latitudinal dipole where increases are projected for much of the northern US while declines are projected for counties across the southern US. Seasonal shifts in county-level precipitation are projected nationwide with declines most evident in summer months in most regions. Changes in the spatial variability of annual precipitation for most counties were less than 10 mm, indicating fairly spatially homogenous midcentury precipitation changes at the county level. Annual and seasonal midcentury temperatures are projected to increase across the USA, with relatively low change in the spatial variability (<0.3 °C) of temperature across most counties. The utility of these data is shown for forage and almond applications, both indicating a potential decline in production in some future years, to illustrate use of county-level seasonal projections in adaptation planning and decision-making.
Highlights
Impacts of climate change on agriculture include redistribution of water availability, changes in the thermal suitability for agricultural zones, and changes in erosion and crop productivity
While mean seasonal and annual data do not support all management decisions, since natural variability and extremes remain a key determinant of annual success in most agricultural enterprises, the online data tool can provide a rapid indication of expected average changes
While temperatures are projected to increase across all counties, counties of certain regions are projected to increase more than other regions
Summary
Impacts of climate change on agriculture include redistribution of water availability, changes in the thermal suitability for agricultural zones, and changes in erosion and crop productivity. Agriculturists cope within an expected range of conditions relative to their locations; increased temperatures will alter growing seasons with earlier starts and longer duration, more high-temperature days, and warmer winters with fewer nights below freezing. These climatic changes can produce both negative and positive effects, for example while warmer winters may reduce yields of chill-depended crops (Luedeling et al 2009), they can lengthen the growing season of other crops and expand the potential range of agricultural crops currently limited by short growing seasons or insufficient heat accumulation. Impacts to the US agricultural sector are dependent upon actions taken to support regional and local adaptive management
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