Abstract
Abstract. A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.
Highlights
There is a growing concern about the possible impacts of climate change on water resources availability (Arnell, 2004)
Garrote et al.: Future risk of water scarcity in Europe is based on a proposed water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios
A regional assessment of water scarcity under climate change has been presented for Europe
Summary
There is a growing concern about the possible impacts of climate change on water resources availability (Arnell, 2004). The most up to date summary is the last Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2014) Most of these studies assimilate global climate model (GCM). In Europe, water resources systems are highly developed and have achieved a profound transformation of the natural characteristics of water flow to adapt to variability and uncertainty. In this paper we present a methodology to assist decision makers in dealing with uncertainties in projections of water resources scenarios under climate change. L. Garrote et al.: Future risk of water scarcity in Europe is based on a proposed water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. We first present the methodology to obtain projected changes of runoff and water availability.
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