Countering Hidden Risks in the India-Pakistan Conflict

Abstract

In his article The Enduring Conflict and the Hidden Risk of India-Pakistan War , Dr. Ashok Sharma presents a comprehensive account of the roots of the India-Pakistan conflict, and skillfully discusses the stability-instability paradox 1 whereby nuclear weapons increase the probability of localized assault. 2014 will bring new challenges to India-Pakistan relations. When the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan in 1989, the mujahideen suddenly turned eastward to India and the Kashmir insurgency intensified. We can expect a similar inflammation when NATO forces withdraw. Worse yet, the NATO war in Afghanistan has dispersed the Taliban and created new factions like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, 2 which will be ready and willing to support Pakistani interests in Kashmir through violence. India will also hold national elections in 2014, which will create other complications. Following the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the Manmohan Singh government staved off pressure to take action against Pakistan by “a hair’s breadth.” 3 Seeking higher popularity ratings and rallying the nation behind the Congress-led alliance, Singh may not refrain from tough action in response to a similar attack. Moreover, if the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defeats the Congress at the polls, a similar terrorist attack, even at a smaller scale, would almost certainly provoke an aggressive Indian response. Pakistan’s domestic situation will be another key factor. The country’s 2013 elections will either return to power ineffective civilian leaders unable to thwart the Pakistani Army’s domination of national and foreign affairs, or bring to office the young and dynamic Imran Khan, 4 who promises that the Pakistani Army will assume its constitutionally appropriate role. Second, the current Chief of Army Staff, General Kayani, is retiring in 2013. 5 One hopes that his replacement will have greater respect for civilian institutions and a bigger appetite to deepen India-Pakistan ties. Although Pakistan is unlikely to soften its stance on India, the extent of its army’s interference in internal and external policy will dictate in large part the level of hostility between the two neighbors.