Countering Geopolitical Competition in the Western Balkans: the EU, Russia, and China

Abstract

While the European Union (EU) has long considered the Western Balkans its sphere of influence, the growing geopolitical competition from Russia and China has created harmful countercurrents in the region. In order to adequately challenge these, the EU needs to overcome its credibility crisis in the Western Balkans, produced by years of national vetoes and enlargement fatigue in the EU, paired with slow reforms or even democratic backsliding in the region. This situation could be remedied by focusing on Montenegro, which has long been considered the region’s frontrunner in the EU accession process and is already a NATO member. By actively working towards full EU membership for the smallest country in the Western Balkans, the EU would not only be able to fortify its geopolitical role in the region, it could simultaneously create positive momentum, proving that there is indeed a believable path towards EU membership, which remains the most reliable tool to combat destructive influence from Russia and China.