Counterfactual Analysis of Sustainable Project Delivery Processes

Abstract

Research is revealing that certain delivery process attributes influence the outcomes of sustainable construction projects. This preliminary research leads to follow-up questions such as which attributes are most influential? And how can the influence of these attributes be quantified? Answering questions like these is impractical using only traditional construction research methods. Delivery process attributes can have greater impact on one sustainable project and less on another, and controlling the numerous variables involved is nearly impossible. To answer questions facing similar constraints, economist Robert Fogel pioneered the counterfactual analysis research method, winning a Nobel Prize in the process. The objective of this article is to describe the adaptation and testing of counterfactual analysis to assist study of sustainable project delivery processes. Counterfactual analysis is especially well suited for sustainable projects, with their complex processes and stakeholder interactions. The adapted six-step method is informed by applications of counterfactual analysis in fields including economics, history, and political science. Descriptions of each step include specific examples from a pilot study of the method. A path forward is outlined for applying counterfactual analysis to examine key questions related to sustainable construction projects and to more broad areas of construction research.