Abstract
Count regression models were developed to model data with integer outcome variables. These models can be employed to examine occurrence and frequency of occurrence. Four common types of count regression models are applied to caries data among children aged between three and six years attending Lady Northey Dental clinic between September, 2014 and November 2014. These models include Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). The simplest count regression model, Poisson, was fitted first before considering other complex models. However, it did not perform better than its improved counterparts. The NB model proved to be the the simplest model that fits the data well according to Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and was therefore employed to determine the important predictors of caries experience among the children. Model comparison was performed on the four models by use of AIC. Deviance values for various NB models were compared and the model with the least deviance value was considered to give a subset of best predictors of Early Childhood Caries (ECC). These predictors included age, gender, brushing frequency, feeding habit biscuits, feeding habit jam and highest education of the mother.
Highlights
Dental caries, known as tooth decay or cavity, is a bacterial infection that dissolves tooth enamel, the outer hard layer of a tooth
The covariates considered for analysis included the following: Age(x1), Gender(x2), Highest education of the father(x3), Highest education of the mother(x4), Employment state of the father(x5), Feeding habit biscuits(x6), Feeding habit gum(x7), Feeding habit jam(x8), Feeding habit juice(x9), Feeding habit soda(x10), Feeding habit sweets(x11), Feeding habit tea with sugar(x12), Brushing frequency(x13), Use of flouridated toothpaste(x14)
The negative binomial regression model assumes a gamma distribution for the Poisson mean with variation over the subjects [7]
Summary
Known as tooth decay or cavity, is a bacterial infection that dissolves tooth enamel, the outer hard layer of a tooth. Two articles on rates of caries in 14 sub-Saharan African nations, exempting South Africa, between 1945 and 1989 reported that dental caries is fairly stable and at a low level These two articles did not consider the varying diagnostic methods used in the studies and the range of age groups was wide, i.e., from 6 to 20 years. Childhood Caries (ECC) is an oral disease that starts when a child’s teeth emerge This decay spreads rapidly to other tooth surfaces that are not affected. ECC is termed present if one or more teeth are decayed, filled or missing due to caries among children aged six years or below This oral disease has as well been referred to as labial caries, nursing bottle syndrome, nursing caries, milk bottle caries, bottle rot and baby bottle tooth decay.
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