Count-Data Mixed Models of Topical Tweets: A Case of Indonesia Flood Events

Abstract

Examining topic-level variability in modeling Twitter data can potentially yield more comprehensive insights into public perception during critical periods, thereby enhancing natural disaster mitigation and surveillance efforts. In this study, we utilized generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to illustrate the variability in tweet counts related to specific topics in Indonesia during the flood events that occurred in February 2021. The glmmTMB library in R was employed for this purpose. The data were assumed to follow two distinct exponential distributions: Poisson and Negative Binomial. To incorporate random effects, random intercepts and random slopes were introduced, allowing them to vary randomly across topics in the initial two models. Additionally, the final model addressed issues related to dispersion and zero-inflation. By evaluating the Akaike Information Criteria scores, we determined that a model based on the Negative Binomial distribution with random zero-inflation intercepts best fit the data. The chosen model formulation and the estimated parameters have the potential to forecast topic-specific trends in Indonesian flood-related Twitter data.