Could the UK Economy Be Impacted by an Increase in Tornado Occurrence?: A Consequence of Climate Change in the 21st Century

Abstract

AbstractViolent Tornadoes are uncommon in the United Kingdom when compared with the US tornado alleys where significant storms occur frequently. However, the UK does suffer moderate to strong tornadoes occasionally as evidenced, at Birmingham (2005), London (2006) and Essex (2013) all of which caused damage that cost circa £68 m and a number of fatalities. These events inevitability lead to increased interest in UK tornado research in the 21st century. Consequently, this qualitative study primarily analyses the UK tornado damage costs in recent periods by incorporating an innovative methodology: the, 3PA (Three Path Analysis). Chronological records of destruction costs from tornadoes in the United Kingdom are taken and adjusted to current inflation and market rates. These amendments offer a more reliable comparative process, evaluating losses overtime in the framework of significant social and economic change. Between 1050 and 2013, the most exorbitant and violent tornado (T8) occurred on 23rd October 1091 in London. However, the costliest tornado on record occurred on 28th July 2005 in Birmingham. This tornado (T5) had an adjusted £55 million damage cost (adjusted to 2013 inflation rates). Rapid climate change scenarios suggest that weather patterns will favour tornado generation and should, strong to violent tornadoes travel through some of the world’s trading centres i.e. London or Birmingham, damage costs would likely amount to more than £1billion, negatively affecting national GDP during the 21st century. Therefore, this research provides an important contribution to the literature that is extremely sparse with regard to the economic impact of UK tornado scenarios.