Abstract
BackgroundExisting literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. However, how ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear. ObjectivesWe explore the association between ambient temperature and transmissibility of COVID-19 in different regions across China. MethodsThe surveillance data on COVID-19 and meteorological factors were collected from 28 provincial level regions in China, and estimated the instantaneous reproductive number (Rt). The generalized additive model was used to assess the relationship between mean temperature and Rt. ResultsThere were 12,745 COVID-19 cases collected in the study areas. We report the associated effect of temperature on Rt is likely to be negative but not of statistical significance, which holds for most Chinese regions. ConclusionsWe found little statistical evidence for that the higher temperature may reduce the transmissibility of COVID-19. Since intensive control measures against the COVID-19 epidemics were implemented in China, we acknowledge this may impact the underlying effect size estimation, and thus cautiousness should be taken when interpreting our findings.
Highlights
Meteorological factors, e.g., ambient temperature, play a significant role in the spread of many infectious diseases
There were 12745 total collected COVID-19 cases, of which the most cases in East China (5150), almost 10 times of the cases in Northwest China that had the least number of cases (503)
As table 2 shows, the estimated reproductive number ranges from 1.1 to 1.5 across Chinese regions, and the virus was more infectious in East China, while in the North China was weaker
Summary
Meteorological factors, e.g., ambient temperature, play a significant role in the spread of many infectious diseases. The seasonal outbreaks of influenza in cold months exemplify partly relationship between meteorological factors and infectious diseases [2]. In the end of 2019, a new coronavirus by the name of SARS-CoV-2 (or formerly 2019-nCoV), can make humans suffer from atypical pneumonia, one serious type of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) [3,4]. Motivated by the researchers found there was an inverse relationship between temperature and SARS [6], it is tempting to assume that such association could apply to COVID-19 as well, which may provide the region-specific prevention measures. Existing literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. How ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear
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