Could it be monkeypox? Use of an AI-based epidemic early warning system to monitor rash and fever illness

Abstract

ObjectivesThe EPIWATCH artificial intelligence (AI) system scans open-source data using automated technology and can be used to detect early warnings of infectious disease outbreaks. In May 2022, a multicountry outbreak of Mpox in non-endemic countries was confirmed by the World Health Organization. This study aimed to identify signals of fever and rash-like illness using EPIWATCH and, if detected, determine if they represented potential Mpox outbreaks. Study designThe EPIWATCH AI system was used to detect global signals for syndromes of rash and fever that may have represented a missed diagnosis of Mpox from 1 month prior to the initial case confirmation in the United Kingdom (7 May 2022) to 2 months following. MethodsArticles were extracted from EPIWATCH and underwent review. A descriptive epidemiologic analysis was conducted to identify reports pertaining to each rash-like illness, locations of each outbreak and report publication dates for the entries from 2022, with 2021 as a control surveillance period. ResultsReports of rash-like illnesses in 2022 between 1 April and 11 July (n = 656 reports) were higher than in the same period in 2021 (n = 75 reports). The data showed an increase in reports from July 2021 to July 2022, and the Mann–Kendall trend test showed a significant upward trend (P = 0.015). The most frequently reported illness was hand-foot-and-mouth disease, and the country with the most reports was India. ConclusionsVast open-source data can be parsed using AI in systems such as EPIWATCH to assist in the early detection of disease outbreaks and monitor global trends.