Could China Declare a “Coal Phase-Out”? An Evolutionary Game and Empirical Analysis Involving the Government, Enterprises, and the Public

Jingna Kou,Fengjun Sun,Jie Jin,Wei Li

doi:10.3390/en15020531

Abstract

There is a global move toward being “carbon neutral”. Reducing the use of coal to generate power has become an inevitable choice for many countries when transforming their energy structures. Many countries have proposed phasing out coal. China is a major energy producing and consuming country and intends to reach a carbon peak by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. China has repeatedly emphasized coal reduction, but has not explicitly proposed phasing out coal, due to the influence of local governments, coal-related enterprises, and the public. This paper explores whether China could declare a “coal phase-out”, and the possible reasons for doing so, by constructing an evolutionary game model with two correlations. MATLAB was used to simulate the model results to determine the effectiveness of the fractal results of the model, and the entropy method was used to calculate the development level of “coal phase-out” related indicators in China and Germany. The results show that: (1) The government can phase out coal only when coal-related enterprises and the public can benefit from reducing coal production and consumption. In addition, these benefits are needed to ensure stable economic and social development without affecting people’s daily lives; (2) The development level of relevant indicators of “coal retreat” in China is lower than that in Germany. Based on these results, it is concluded that it is difficult for China to announce a “coal phase-out” at present. Faced with this reality, China should improve the efficiency of coal use, install carbon capture and storage facilities, vigorously develop renewable energy and reduce the share of coal in the energy system.

Highlights

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations
This paper proposes three factors that directly affect the “coal phase-out” decision: local governments that rely on coal to drive regional economy; coal-related enterprises that affect their own benefits and expenditures; and the public
China indicate that total revenue is the key factor driving whether enterprises reduce coal use

Summary

Introduction

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Coal is a primary source of energy, accounting for 40% [1] of global carbon dioxide emissions In this context, there is the international consensus that coal needs to be phased out until its use can be completely stopped. A “coal phase-out” proposal does not mean quitting immediately, but rather, quitting within a time-bound planning schedule. In September 2020, China officially announced it would achieve its emission peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 At this point, China needs to consider whether it can break its traditional fossil energy consumption patterns, including the use of coal, and seize the initiative to gain a competitive advantage in the global low-carbon, green, and clean energy transition

Results

Discussion

Conclusion