Abstract
Australia, home to the iconic dingo, is currently free from canine rabies. However northern Australia, including Indigenous communities with large free-roaming domestic dog populations, is at increased risk of rabies incursion from nearby Indonesia. We developed a novel agent-based stochastic spatial rabies spread model to evaluate the potential spread of rabies within the dingo population of the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) region of northern Australia. The model incorporated spatio-temporal features specific to this host-environment system, including landscape heterogeneity, demographic fluctuations, dispersal movements and dingo ecological parameters—such as home range size and density—derived from NPA field studies. Rabies spread between dingo packs in nearly 60% of simulations. In such situations rabies would affect a median of 22 dingoes (approximately 14% of the population; 2.5–97.5 percentiles: 2–101 dingoes) within the study area which covered 1,131 km2, and spread 0.52 km/week for 191 days. Larger outbreaks occurred in scenarios in which an incursion was introduced during the dry season (vs. wet season), and close to communities (vs. areas with high risk of interaction between dingoes and hunting community dogs). Sensitivity analyses revealed that home range size and duration of infectious clinical period contributed most to the variance of outputs. Although conditions in the NPA would most likely not support a sustained propagation of the disease in the dingo population, due to the predicted number of infected dingoes following a rabies incursion and the proximity of Indigenous communities to dingo habitat, we conclude that the risk for human transmission could be substantial.
Highlights
Canine rabies is a vaccine-preventable viral disease, estimated to cause 59 000 human deaths annually, mostly occurring in Asia and Africa [1]
Australia is free from canine rabies, an incursion from nearby rabies-infected Indonesian islands is a realistic threat
Using a newly developed simulation model, we investigated the potential spread of rabies in a northern Australian dingo population
Summary
Canine rabies is a vaccine-preventable viral disease, estimated to cause 59 000 human deaths annually, mostly occurring in Asia and Africa [1]. Behavior associated in animals affected with the dumb form includes restricted movement (for example, remaining confined to a den) whereas animals affected by the furious form might display signs of increased agitation leading them to roam considerable distances, as observed in rabies-infected foxes [7]. These rabies-induced behaviors most likely have an impact on contact patterns between individuals and disease dynamics [8]. The northern Australian coast is vulnerable to the establishment of rabies: this sparsely populated area contains socio-economically disadvantaged remote Indigenous communities with cultural practices that include free-roaming domestic dogs [15]; in addition, there is limited access to healthcare and veterinary care services [16]
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