Abstract
GPS measurements of crustal deformation are showing that a magnitude 9 earthquake could occur in the Himalayas. Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado at Boulder reported at the AGU Fall Meeting that the region, known to be seismically active, could produce a much larger earthquake than previously thought. Bilham and colleagues used GPS to monitor rates of crustal deformation in the Himalayas. They found that the potential rupture zone is larger than scientists had believed—the region where strain is building is twice as wide as expected. Previous estimates, which were based on the historical earthquake record, suggested that the largest earthquake that would occur in the region would have a magnitude in the low 8s. Such an earthquake could be devastating—the Kashmir valley region alone is home to 6 million people.
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