Abstract
Diesel-powered, human-driven buses currently dominate public transit options in most U.S. cities, yet they produce health, environmental, and cost concerns. Emerging technologies may improve fleet operations by cost-effectively reducing emissions. This study analyzes both battery-electric buses and self-driving (autonomous) buses from both cost and qualitative perspectives, using the Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s bus fleet in Austin, Texas. The study predicts battery-electric buses, including the required charging infrastructure, will become lifecycle cost-competitive in or before the year 2030 at existing U.S. fuel prices ($2.00/gallon), with the specific year depending on the actual rate of cost decline and the diesel bus purchase prices. Rising diesel prices would result in immediate cost savings before reaching $3.30 per gallon. Self-driving buses will reduce or eliminate the need for human drivers, one of the highest current operating costs of transit agencies. Finally, this study develops adoption schedules for these technologies. Recognizing bus lifespans and driver contracts, and assuming battery-electric bus adoption beginning in year-2020, cumulative break-even (neglecting extrinsic benefits, such as respiratory health) occurs somewhere between 2030 and 2037 depending on the rate of battery cost decline and diesel-bus purchase prices. This range changes to 2028 if self-driving technology is available for simultaneous adoption on new electric bus purchases beginning in 2020. The results inform fleet operators and manufacturers of the budgetary implications of converting a bus fleet to electric power, and what cost parameters allow electric buses to provide budgetary benefits over their diesel counterparts.
Highlights
Transportation is on the cusp of technological shifts, with fully autonomous technology moving closer to reality and alternative power sources experiencing technological advancement that is pushing them to challenge the status quo
Reliance on diesel-powered transit buses for most of Austin’s public transportation adds to the emissions produced on the region’s roadways and it limits the ability of Capital Metro and other transit agencies to broadly serve Austin’s population
This study considers alternative power sources and analyzes the lifecycle cost implications of bus transit fleet electrification and automation, using Austin’s Capital Metro bus system as a case study
Summary
Transportation is on the cusp of technological shifts, with fully autonomous technology moving closer to reality and alternative power sources experiencing technological advancement that is pushing them to challenge the status quo. Travel in the U.S is dominated by personal automobiles, comprising 83% of U.S passenger trips, with limited use of all other modes [1]. Automobile dependence has resulted in sprawling development, significant traffic congestion, and limited public transportation options. Like many American cities, especially those in the south, Austin, Texas offers few rail travel options, with fixed-route buses accounting for 93% of the city’s public transit trips [2]. Reliance on diesel-powered transit buses for most of Austin’s public transportation adds to the emissions produced on the region’s roadways and it limits the ability of Capital Metro and other transit agencies to broadly serve Austin’s population. As a result, emerging technologies to reduce emissions and costs, and to attract more travelers to improved transit services should be considered
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
