Abstract
The main objective was to identify economic burden from epidemiological changes and expected demand for health care services for diabetes in México. The cost evaluation method to estimate direct and indirect costs was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes for 2009-2011, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Comparing the economic impact in 2009 versus 2011 (p< 0.05), there is a 33% increase in financial requirements. The total amount for diabetes in 2010 (US dollars) will be $778,427,475. It includes $343,226,541 in direct costs and $435,200,934 in indirect costs. The total direct costs expected are: $40,787,547 for the Ministry of Health (SSA), serving to uninsured population; $113,664,454 for insured population (Mexican Institute for Social Security–IMSS-, and Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers-ISSSTE-); $178,477,754 to users; and $10,296,786 to Private Health Insurance (PHI). Conclusions: If the risk factors and the different health care models remain as they are currently in the institutions analyzed, the financial consequences would be of major impact for the pockets of the users, following in order of importance, social security institutions and finally Ministry of Health. Allocate more resources to promotion and prevention of diabetes will decrease the cost increase by decreasing the demand for treatment of complications.
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