Cost-efficiency and budget-neutral expanded access modeling of pembrolizumab versus the novel PD-1 inhibitor toripalimab in locally advanced or metastatic nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer

Abstract

Aims To estimate in a panel of patients with locally advanced/metastatic nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with a programmed death receptor-1 inhibitor in the US in 2024 (1) the cost-efficiency of toripalimab regimens compared to pembrolizumab regimens; and (2) the budget-neutral expanded access to additional toripalimab cycles and regimens from accrued savings. Methods Simulation modeling of toripalimab + pemetrexed + carboplatin in nonsquamous NSCLC to a similar pembrolizumab regimen in a panel of 49,647 patients; utilizing two cost inputs (wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) at market entry and an estimated ex ante toripalimab price point of 80% of pembrolizumab average sales price (ASP)) plus administration costs over one and two years of treatment with treatment rates from 1%–10%. Scenario analyses with treatment durations equivalent to toripalimab and pembrolizumab trials’ median PFS were also conducted. Results In the WAC-based models, toripalimab saves $2,223 per patient per cycle and $40,014 over 1 year of treatment ($77,805 over 2 years). Extrapolated to the 49,647-patient panel, estimated 1-year savings range from $19,865,840 (1% treatment rate) to $198,658,399 (10% rate). Reallocating these savings permits budget-neutral expanded access to an additional 1,753 (1% rate) to 17,533 (10% rate) toripalimab maintenance cycles or to an additional 97 (1% rate) to 972 (10%) full 1-year toripalimab regimens with all agents. Two-year savings range from $38,628,022 (1% rate) to $386,280,221 (10%). Reallocating these efficiencies provides expanded access ranging from 3,409 (1% rate) to 34,093 (10%) additional toripalimab cycles or to 97 to 973 full 2-year regimens. The ex ante ASP model showed similar results as did the scenario analyses but at a lower magnitude than the base case. Conclusion Toripalimab generates significant savings that enable budget-neutral funding for up to 17,533 [34,093] additional maintenance cycles over one year [two years] with toripalimab + pemetrexed in nonsquamous NSCLC, or 972 [973] full one-year [two-year] regimens.