Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transition in China

Abstract

Coal power transition always maintains a high complexity as the heterogeneities of characteristics such as technical attribute, economic lock-in, and environmental and health impact. Here, we explored the cost-effectiveness uncertainty brought by policy implementation disturbance of different phaseout and new-built strategies (i.e., the disruption of phaseout priority) of coal power based on a developed unit-level uncertainty assessment framework, and revealed the opportunity and risk of coal transition decision by employing preference analysis. We found that, the uncertainty of policy implementation might lead to potential delays in yielding the initial positive annual net benefits. For example, a delay of 6 years might occur when the prior phaseout practice is implemented. A certain level of risk remains in the implementation of the phaseout policy, as not all strategies can guarantee the achievement of positive cumulative net benefits from 2018-2060. Since the unit-level heterogeneities shape diverse orientation of decision making, the decision-making preferences would significantly alter the selection of coal transition strategy. While the uncertainty of policy implementation might lead to missed opportunities in identifying optimal strategy. Our results highlight the importance of minimizing the policy implementation disturbance, which helps mitigate the risk of negative benefits and strengthen the practicality of phaseout decision.