Cost-effectiveness of mt-sDNA versus mailed FIT outreach for Medicare Advantage enrollees using the CRC-AIM microsimulation model.

Abstract

e18827 Background: Despite proven effectiveness in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) cases, screening for CRC remains underutilized, including those enrolled in Medicare Advantage. A mailed fecal immunochemical test (FIT) outreach program may increase CRC screening adherence. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of stool-based tests (FIT and multi-target stool DNA [mt-sDNA]), with FIT offered via a mailed outreach program, in a Medicare Advantage population. Methods: The validated CRC-AIM microsimulation model was used to simulate the costs and clinical outcomes of 2 million average-risk individuals, free of diagnosed CRC at age 40, who initiated CRC screening at age 65. Annual mailed FIT outreach and triennial mt-sDNA were assessed. Test sensitivity and specificity inputs were based on the 2021 United States Preventative Services Task Force modeling study. FIT outreach program cost ($25.92) and direct costs for screening tests, colonoscopies (COLs), complications, and CRC care were included. The model employed a lifetime horizon, 3% discount rates, and a Medicare Advantage perspective. The primary analysis used published real-world adherence rates for stool-based tests and follow-up COLs (FIT/COL: 29%/53%; mt-sDNA/COL: 69.8%/71.5%). Secondary analyses assumed 100% adherence for stool-based tests and/or follow-up COLs and 20% higher than primary analysis for FIT and the corresponding follow-up COLs. Results: In the primary analysis, mt-sDNA had the greatest life-years gained (LYG), incidence reduction (IR), and mortality reduction (MR) and was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY compared to mailed FIT outreach (Table). This was true when 100% adherence was assumed for follow-up COL and when FIT had 20% higher adherence than the primary analysis. mt-sDNA had 64-129% greater LYG, 79-150% greater IR, and 68-146% greater MR than mailed FIT outreach. When assuming 100% adherence for both screening test and follow-up COL, mt-sDNA was dominated by mailed FIT outreach. Conclusions: Adherence to CRC screening modality and follow-up COL greatly impacts clinical and cost-effectiveness outcomes. Future analysis should consider evidence-based, health plan-specific data to accurately reflect outcomes that aid in payer decision making.[Table: see text]