Cost-effectiveness of active surveillance versus early surgery for thyroid micropapillary carcinoma based on diagnostic and treatment norms in China.

Abstract

In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness comparison of the active surveillance (AS) and early surgery (ES) approaches for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model of PTMC we developed to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AS and ES. Our reference case was of a 40-year-old woman diagnosed with unifocal (<10mm) PTMC. Relevant data were extracted after an extensive literature review, and the cost incurred in each state was determined using China Medicare data on payments for ES and AS. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at ¥242,928/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for any uncertainty in the model's variables. Additional subgroup analyses were performed to determine whether AS was cost-effective when different initial monitoring ages were used. ES exhibited an effectiveness of 5.2 QALYs, whereas AS showed an effectiveness of 25.8 QALYs. Furthermore, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ES versus AS was ¥1,009/QALY. The findings of all sensitivity analyses were robust. Compared with ES, AS was found to be the cost-effective strategy at initial monitoring ages of 20 and 60 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ¥3,431/QALY and -¥1,316/QALY at 20 and 60 years, respectively. AS was a more cost-effective strategy in patients with PTMC aged more than 60. With respect to the norms of the Chinese healthcare system, AS was more cost-effective for PTMC over lifetime surveillance than ES. Furthermore, it was cost-effective even when the initial monitoring ages were different. In addition, if AS is incorporated into the management plan for PTMC in China at the earliest possible stage, a predicted savings of ¥10 × 108/year could be enabled for every 50,000 cases of PTMC, which indicates a good economic return for future management programs. The identification of such nuances can help physicians and patients determine the best and most individualized long-term management strategy for low-risk PTMC.