Abstract
In elderly patients with human epidermal growth factor 2-positive breast cancer, adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with decreased quality of life, with relatively small benefits for prognosis. We examined the cost-effectiveness of trastuzumab monotherapy versus adjuvant chemotherapy plus trastuzumab in elderly patients with human epidermal growth factor 2-positive breast cancer. A Markov model was developed to evaluate the costs and benefits of trastuzumab monotherapy over adjuvant chemotherapy plus trastuzumab for elderly patients with human epidermal growth factor 2-positive breast cancer. We built the model with a yearly cycle over a 20-year time horizon and five health states: disease-free, relapse, post-relapse, metastasis and death. The parameters in the model were based on a previous randomized controlled trial and a nationwide administrative database in Japan. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, expressed as Japanese yen per the quality-adjusted life-years, was estimated from the perspective of health care payers. One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis with Monte-Carlo simulations of 10 000 samples were conducted. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of trastuzumab monotherapy over adjuvant chemotherapy plus trastuzumab was $\sim$1.8 million Japanese yen /quality-adjusted life-year. The one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis showed that transition probability from disease-free to metastasis status and cost of metastasis status had the greatest influence on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. More than half the estimates in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis were located below a threshold of willingness-to-pay of 5 million Japanese yen /quality-adjusted life-year. In this first comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy plus trastuzumab versus trastuzumab monotherapy in the elderly, the latter was found favorable for elderly patients with human epidermal growth factor 2-positive breast cancer.
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