Cost-effective options and regional interdependencies of reaching a low-carbon European electricity system in 2035

Abstract

With its European Green Deal, the European Union (EU) aims to substantially increase renewable electricity generation and decrease greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector by 2035. European countries independently set these targets, but might not account for cross-border infrastructure interdependencies that may facilitate or impede their implementation. This study quantifies regional interdependencies among 36 European countries aggregated to eight regions by applying electricity sector modeling, Modeling to Generate Alternatives, tree-based ensemble method, and scenario discovery. Cost-effectively reaching EU targets in 2035 allows for flexibility in uptake of electricity system infrastructure across European regions, with few exceptions. Reaching EU targets with low costs requires high renewable capacities in Central and Nordic Europe and France, steep reductions of fossil fuel capacities in Central and Eastern Europe, keeping existing nuclear capacities in France, and high storage capacities in Alpine and Central Europe. Regional targets are most influential for increasing renewable capacities, while EU targets are most influential for decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. If EU targets are met, reaching regional targets of Central Europe and keeping nuclear capacities in France substantially reduce infrastructure requirements in Eastern Europe, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation for electricity system planning and policy.