Abstract
Abstract The prospective cost-benefit of CSP (concentrated solar power) is the attention focus for policy-making and investment decisions. In order to analyze cost-benefit evolution of CSP, the paper adopted the net present value and discounted cash flows techniques to develop a mathematical model, and calculated LCOE (levelized cost of energy) of CSP between 2018 and 2050 by taking the CSP industry of China as an example. The results show that: Firstly, CSP has a large potential in the LCOE reduction, and the values of parabolic trough and solar tower CSP systems reduce by 46%–57% and 47%–56% from 2018 to 2050, respectively. Secondly, predicted evolution for the LCOE of CSP strongly depends, not only on the cumulative installed capacity determined by the specific growth paths of Blue Map and Roadmap Scenarios, but also on the learning curves impacted by technical progress and experience accumulation. Thirdly, to select the sites with higher direct normal irradiation and land cost exemption is crucial to improve cost-benefit evolution of CSP. Lastly, the expected returns (i.e. discount rate) have important effect on the LCOE evolution of CSP, high expected returns lead to high the LCOE, and vice versa.
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