Cost predictions for photovoltaic energy sources

Abstract

A preliminary assessment of the solar cell cost prediction art has been made, both in terms of a review and analysis of the prior literature and through an extension of these prior studies. The primary purpose of this study is to establish a basis for judging the relative credibility of the existing cost estimates. The initial step in this evaluation is to develop a self-consistent system of “reaonable” assumptions concerning the future market environment of solar cell energy sources. The second step is to establish the key assumptions which dominate the cost estimates obtained in prior studies. The results from these first two steps form the basis for judging the relative credibility of the existing cost predictions. Finally, an alternative set of cost estimates is generated. These alternative cost predictions are made for single-crystal Si cells (Czochralski vs “ribbon” growth), current technology Cu 2SCdS cells, and a “generalized” thin-film photovoltaic device.