Abstract
Considering the targets of the Paris agreement, rapid decarbonisation of the power system is needed. In order to study cost-optimal and reliable zero and negative carbon power systems, a power system model of Western Europe for 2050 is developed. Realistic future technology costs, demand levels and generator flexibility constraints are considered. The optimised portfolios are tested for both favourable and unfavourable future weather conditions using results from a global climate model, accounting for the potential impacts of climate change on Europe’s weather. The cost optimal mix for zero or negative carbon power systems consists of firm low-carbon capacity, intermittent renewable energy sources and flexibility capacity. In most scenarios, the amount of low-carbon firm capacity is around 75% of peak load, providing roughly 65% of the electricity demand. Furthermore, it is found that with a high penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources, a high dependence on cross border transmission, batteries and a shift to new types of ancillary services is required to maintain a reliable power system. Despite relatively small changes in the total generation from intermittent renewable energy sources between favourable and unfavourable weather years of 6%, emissions differ up to 70 MtCO2 yr−1 and variable systems costs up to 25%. In a highly interconnected power system with significant flexible capacity in the portfolio and minimal curtailment of intermittent renewables, the potential role of green hydrogen as a means of electricity storage appears to be limited.
Highlights
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change states the objective to keep global mean surface temperature increase due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions well below 2 °C and strive to limit the increase to 1.5 °C [1]
A mix of bioenergy in combination with CCS (BECCS), Combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and open cycle gas turbine (OCGT) capacity takes over some of the generation previously provided by nuclear power
While other studies highlight the importance of CCGT-CO2 capture and storage (CCS) capacity [9,16,43], the results of this study suggest that per MWh, CCGT in combination with BECCS is more economical than CCGT-CCS in combination with BECCS, but only when aiming for net zero emissions
Summary
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change states the objective to keep global mean surface temperature increase due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions well below 2 °C and strive to limit the increase to 1.5 °C [1]. With this in mind, the global carbon budget between 2017 and 2100 is estimated at 1000 GtCO2 for a 66% chance of staying below 2 °C temperature increase.
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