Abstract
BackgroundIschemic heart disease (IHD/ICD10: I20-I25) is the second leading cause of deaths in Japan and accounts for 40% of deaths due to heart diseases. This study aimed to calculate the economic burden of IHD using the cost of illness (COI) method and to identify key factors that drive the change of the economic burden of IHD.MethodsWe calculated the cost of illness (COI) every 3 years from 1996 to 2014 using governmental statistics. We then predicted the COI for every 3 years starting from 2017 up to 2029 using the fixed and variable model estimations. Only the estimated future population was used as a variable in the fixed model estimation. By contrast, variable model estimation considered the time trend of health-related indicators over the past 18 years. We derived the COI from the sum of direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality).ResultsThe past estimation of COI slightly increased from 1493.8 billion yen in 1996 to 1708.3 billion yen in 2014. Future forecasts indicated that it would decrease from 1619.0 billion yen in 2017 to 1220.5 billion yen in 2029.ConclusionThe past estimation showed that the COI of IHD increased; in the mixed model, the COI was predicted to decrease with the continuing trend of health-related indicators. The COI of IHD in the future projection showed that, although the average age of death increased by social aging, the influence of the number of deaths and mortality cost decreased.
Highlights
Ischemic heart disease (IHD/ICD10: I20-I25) is the second leading cause of deaths in Japan and accounts for 40% of deaths due to heart diseases
We estimated the economic burden of major forms of cancer from 1996 and projected the future economic burden [13,14,15,16,17]. These analyses showed that social aging and increase in the average age of death had an impact on the decreased economic burden by devaluing human capital
cost of illness (COI) was estimated as the sum of direct cost (DC) and indirect cost (IC), with IC divided into morbidity cost (MbC) and mortality cost (MtC) as follows: COI 1⁄4 DC þ MbC þ MtC: DC is a medical cost directly related to the disease and includes costs associated with treatment, hospitalization, laboratory investigations, and drugs
Summary
Ischemic heart disease (IHD/ICD10: I20-I25) is the second leading cause of deaths in Japan and accounts for 40% of deaths due to heart diseases. This study aimed to calculate the economic burden of IHD using the cost of illness (COI) method and to identify key factors that drive the change of the economic burden of IHD. Ischemic heart disease (IHD/ICD10: I20-I25) is the second leading cause of death in Japan and accounts for 40% of deaths due to heart diseases. The influence of the social burden in IHD is expected to change with aging of the Japanese population, because IHD has a high mortality rate in the older age group. The objectives of this study were to estimate the social burden of IHD using the cost of illness (COI) method and to predict future changes.
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