Cost model development using virtual manufacturing and data mining: part I—methodology development

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This paper reports on research, the aim of which has been to investigate the use of virtual manufacturing and data mining techniques to automate the identification of manufacturing process time estimating relationships that form the basis of product and process cost models. Such models provide information that is critical to all stages of the product development process and to ensuring that development of cost-effective product design and production methods. Use of virtual manufacturing models and data mining techniques enables the majority of the activities involved in the cost model development process to be automated. Hence, reducing the time and effort required, reducing the current high level of reliance on expert judgment and enabling higher levels of cost detail to be estimated. The research reported, therefore, focuses on the use of virtual manufacturing to generate datasets which are then analysed using data mining to identify suitable cost models for manufacturing processes. Part I, of this two-part paper, describes the development of a model development methodology that makes use of virtual manufacturing models and data mining techniques and uses case study data to validate this methodology. Part II will then examine in detail the effectiveness of alternative data mining algorithms in terms of their ability to develop relationships that are (1) representative of the real causal relationships that exist and (2) provide a high level of estimating accuracy.