Cost Estimation of Electronic Parts in NASA Space Missions

Abstract

This paper provides a cost model to develop early estimates for electronics, electrical, and electromechanical (EEE) parts costs during early design phases for instruments and spacecraft. Often, to support a certified proposal, the EEE parts group is required to generate a detailed cost estimate for instruments and spacecraft during preliminary design phases. This requires a premature development of a detailed bill of materials (BOM) far in advance of the final design and fabrication phases; it is therefore no surprise that EEE parts costs grow as a given design is refined and finalized and the required BOM is established. The aerospace cost estimating community lacks sufficient data and understanding of what contributes to EEE parts costs, which is becoming increasingly critical as many advanced instrument and spacecraft designs are relying more heavily on advanced electronics and field-programmable gate array (FPGA) development. This analysis seeks to identify several high-level parameters that can be identified early in the design phase (pre-Phase A through Phase C) to generate a realistic range of EEE parts. The resulting cost model can be used to inform the EEE parts estimating process, and provide program management with the potential cost range for appropriate reserve allocation. Actual costs of APL missions, instruments, and EEE parts are used. Technical leads provide the potential cost drivers as well as the technical data. These cost drivers (such as parts class, radiation, board area, and complexity of design and requirements) are investigated through multiple linear regression analysis. The regression results are used to develop cost estimating relationships (CERs) by determining the best predictors of EEE parts cost. It benefits the NASA and DoD cost communities to obtain a rough estimate of EEE cost during the design phase to more properly budget and provide a reasonable cost risk assessment.